China: The 5 climate numbers you need to know

With great power, comes great responsibility…

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Climate change is a tricky beast — being a problem that no single person or nation can solve alone. Climate is truly global by design, from both a cause- (e.g., circulating atmospheric emissions) and effect- (e.g., heat waves, rising sea levels) standpoint.

This means everyone needs to pitch in their ‘fair share’ if we’re going to have any shot at tackling it. But what does fair mean? Should rich countries do more? How about larger emitters? Should everyone have to decarbonize at the same rate?

These are complicated and nuanced questions – with equally complex and nuanced answers. I won’t pretend to have all the answers, but I can help illuminate the problem so you can form your own perspective. And I can think of no better place to start than China, the world’s largest emitter, and a country who can easily be the climate villain or climate hero… only time will tell.

So, let’s talk about China.

When it comes to BIG, multi-factorial problems like that of climate… it can be easy to get lost in the details. So, allow me to help by framing the topic of China’s climate responsibility and future around 5 key numbers:

10… Gigatons

Let’s start with the basics. China emits ~10 Gigatons of CO2 emissions every year – that’s about 25% of the globe’s footprint and ~2x larger than the USA — and China’s footprint has grown by ~3x over the last 20 years (wow!).

All of this, from a country with ~20% of the globe’s population and ~30% of the globe’s manufacturing capacity. This information alone is not enough to form a perspective, but it’s a good start.

1.5… Billion people

Why all the emissions? Well… energy is, at its core, the lifeblood of civilization — with availability of energy and quality of life being highly correlated. And until recently, there weren’t many emissions-free energy options to be had.

Extend this logic to China, with a population of ~1.5Bn people, and you’d expect a large sum of energy needed. However, it is important to also remember that compared to Western nations, China consumes a relatively small amount of energy per capita. To be specific, ~4.5MWh / year / capita in China… as compared to the US (~12 MWh / year / capita) and India (~1MWh / year / capita).

So on a unit-basis, you could argue the Chinese people ‘deserve’ to be using even more energy than they currently are. But that only makes for more emissions… hmmm.

50%... Global coal share

Now… from where do all of these emissions stem? Coal, coal, and more coal.

Some quick stats:

• China has about 50% of the world’s coal capacity.

• Coal is the dirtiest source of power – emitting ~1 ton of CO2 per MWh — which is about 2x higher emissions intensity than natural gas.

• This results in the vast majority (~70%) of Chinese emissions coming from coal.

Now… why not just shut off or convert these plants?

Well… of the ~1Mn MWs of coal capacity operating in China, roughly 70% of that capacity was built within the last 15 years. Now remember, utilities build power plants to last for at least 30 years. So saying ‘China should just stop burning coal’ is like telling your dog not to enjoy every-last lick of that puppy cone from Dairy Queen… not gonna happen! (at least not without a fight…)

To briefly extend the above ‘energy = quality of life’ lens to a broader nation-by-nation development perspective… remember that in 2016, 13% of the globe’s population still did not have access to electricity. So… beyond China’s industrialization alone, you would (rightly) expect any developing country who is looking to provide for its citizens to choose a dirty, coal power plant any day over no power plant at all.

40%... Clean investment share

Now, you may be thinking to yourself ‘wow – China relies on coal so much that they must not care about clean investments like renewables and electric vehicles’. Think again…

China is, in fact, the largest investor in scalable clean technologies on the globe. They invested almost $1Trn in renewables between 2010 and 2020 – that’s compared to ~$350Bn for the US, and ~$200Bn each for Germany and Japan. China alone was almost 40% of the global investment in renewables capacity (again, wow!)

Additionally, China accounts for the largest share of electric vehicle sales in the world. In 2019, ~1Mn EVs, or ~50% of global EV sales, were in China. In 2020, that number dropped to ~40% of global EV sales being made in China… but not because China slowed down, but rather the EU accelerated. NOTE: don’t get too excited, EVs still make up only ~3% of global car sales

So… it’s simply not accurate to conclude that China isn’t deploying clean technologies.

2060… Carbon neutrality

The number that matters most? 2060. The year that China stated it would achieve carbon neutrality, a commitment that also targeted peak emissions by 2030 or sooner.

To put that in context, the globe needs to reduce its footprint by ~50% by 2030, and achieve carbon neutrality / net zero emissions by 2050 to limit global temperature rises to 1.5°C or less (more on that here)

So… while China’s current commitment is not nearly cutting it, the pragmatic optimist in me wonders what I would do in their shoes.

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Putting it all together

Reflecting on the above facts and perspectives, I’m struck by the enormity of the challenge in front of us. How can China ever overcome these odds?

Well… if China rapidly accelerates the deployment of technologies like point source carbon capture on coal plants, advanced nuclear power, hydrogen for industrial applications, and direct-air carbon capture (future blog topics…), maybe they can get there.

While I’m skeptical, the one glimmer of hope (surrounded by a larger cloud of ethical and moral shortcomings) is the Chinese authoritarian, centralized approach to governing. Say what you will, but when the Chinese government and people put their mind to something, they can move mountains to achieve that goal.

Regardless, the rest of the world needs to pick up the torch and think about how we can all rise to this collective challenge.

I, for one, am pragmatically optimistic. Until next time…