The latest, greatest, & future of decarb
a.k.a. Keeton's synthesis of Nat Bullard's 2024 Decarbonization Presentation
Hi folks! Long time no talk š
If you want highlights on the status + future of climate w/o digesting 200 pagesā¦ continue on!
A lot has happened since I last wrote this group (circa April 2023) ā but Iām not here to talk about thatā¦
Instead, I wanted to share my personal highlights + synthesis of Nat Bullardās Decarbonization 2024 Presentation. (FULL PRESENTATION HERE)
In my humble opinion, Natās annual presentation is the BEST single source of truth and prospects for the future of the energy economy.1
The Annual Presentation is 200 (!!) pages long this year, so I recorded a 45 minute Loom series for our employees to get the āTL;DRā of the presentationā¦. and I wanted to share some of the highlights in written form with you all below.
TABLE OF CONTENTS / OUTLINE
1. On global warmingā¦ š
1.1 Our hopes of 1.5C are vanishing before our eyes
1.2 The impact can be seen both in the air and the oceans
1.3 Pick your (least) favorite impact indicatorā¦ OUCH
2. On the status of fossil fuelsā¦ š¢ļø
2.1 Havenāt stoppedā¦
2.2 Wonāt stopā¦
2.3 Structurally incentivized NOT to stopā¦
2.4 Lots of growth outside the USā¦
2.5 But the US isnāt missing out on the party (thanks fracking!)
2.6 With thanks to liquified natural gas, at home & abroad
3. On renewables deploymentā¦ āļø
3.1 Renewables keep setting all-time energy recordsā¦
3.2 Thanks to unfathomable (1000x in 50 years) cost declines
3.3 Which continues to be boosted by efficiency
3.4 But sometimes we donāt even use those clean electronsā¦
3.5 And we still need to figure out how streamline grid deploymentā¦
3.6 ā¦ but weāve learned you CAN be successful in the US
3.7 ā¦ and that TX is the new CA?? #sunshinestates
4. On electric vehiclesā¦ š
4.1 A paradigm shift ā bigger, powerful, heavierā¦ and efficient?
4.2 EVs continue to take off
4.3 Making the top 10 charts!
4.4 And having an impact along the way (2- & 3- wheelers!)
4.5 All electric vehicle production is coolā¦.
4.6 And profitable to bootā¦
4.7 And they come with massive electricity demand (see China!!)
4.8 But theyāre still too expensive to go mainstream
4.9 So adopters skew largely affluent ā when will that change?
5. On batteriesā¦ š
5.1 It is hard to under-state Asiaās dominance
5.2 China is starting to export more than just the battery cells
5.3 And the market is shifting (as Chinaās 5YR Plan predicted)
5.4 Supply chain bumps, the direction of travel is clear (and profound)
6. On supply chainsā¦ āļø
6.1 Follow the money ā investment seeking to avoid mineral shortages
6.2 A highly global game (that the US is trying to onshore)
6.3 With a material impact on the price of goods
6.4 In every sector, including nuclear!
6.5 And an impact on more than just price (6-8 month lead times!!)
7. On agriculture / land useā¦ š¾
7.1 We eat a lot of meatā¦
7.2 Meat eating leads to MEGA carbon emissionsā¦
7.3 We use a lot of land to grow cropsā¦
7.4 Even when the crops are not for eatingā¦
7.5 ā¦ and even when the use of those crops is SUPER inefficient
7.6 Oh ya, letās not forget the impact of food waste!
8. On data + AIā¦ š„ļø
8.1 Data centers (and associated energy use) keep on growingā¦
8.2 And theyāve stopped getting more efficient
8.3 And GPT could further exasperate the problem
9. On net zeroā¦ 0ļøā£
9.1 A truly global problem
9.2 With almost global commitment coverage
9.3 But the easy work is mostly overā¦
9.4 And the reporting only gets more difficultā¦
9.5 But we have success stories (like LEDs!)
9.6 And we have precedent for speed and scaleā¦
9.7 And we know that incentives can workā¦
9.8 But sectors are hard to abate (literally)
9.9 And plans do not volumes make
9.10 We risk getting caught in the color wheels
9.11 And we will need more than advanced market commitments
9.12 ā¦ maybe even a global carbon price!
10. On financing the futureā¦ šø
10.1 Clean investment continues to ramp upā¦
10.2 But our wallets are on track for 3 degrees Celsiusā¦
10.3 And interest rates make it hardā¦
10.4 Because climate tech is CAPEX heavy
10.5 But weāre tryingā¦ starting with early stage investing
10.6 The market has slowed down a little bitā¦
10.7 But its bound to speed up when ādry powderā is spent
10.8 Hereās to hoping green investment remains more profitable!
11. ā¦ plus a few fun extras! š£
11.1 Social media can actually be insightful?!
11.2 Buy your silver jewelry while you still can!
11.3 Sometimes math is harder than you thinkā¦
11.4 As The Graduate said, the future is still plastics
11.5 The hottest club for 2024 isā¦. COP
11.6 Sue me, BRO!
1
For those who donāt know, Nat is a climate tech + energy economy + data godfather who was previously the Chief Content Officer at Bloomberg New Energy Finance (NEF), a pioneer in clean tech data, reporting, analysis, and projections.